Our unconscious brain makes the best decisions possible

Researchers at the University of Rochester have shown that the human brain—once thought to be a seriously flawed decision maker—is actually hard-wired to allow us to make the best decisions possible with the information we are given. The findings are published in today's issue of the journal Neuron.
Neuroscientists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky received a 2002 Nobel Prize for their 1979 research that argued humans rarely make rational decisions. Since then, this has become conventional wisdom among cognition researchers
Contrary to Kahnneman and Tversky's research, Alex Pouget, associate professor of brain and cognitive sciences at the University of Rochester, has shown that people do indeed make optimal decisions—but only when their unconscious brain makes the choice.
"A lot of the early work in this field was on conscious decision making, but most of the decisions you make aren't based on conscious reasoning," says Pouget. "You don't consciously decide to stop at a red light or steer around an obstacle in the road. Once we started looking at the decisions our brains make without our knowledge, we found that they almost always reach the right decision, given the information they had to work with."
Pouget says that Kahneman's approach was to tell a subject that there was a certain percent chance that one of two choices in a test was "right." This meant a person had to consciously compute the percentages to get a right answer—something few people could do accurately.
Pouget has been demonstrating for years that certain aspects of human cognition are carried out with surprising accuracy. He has employed what he describes as a very simple unconscious-decision test. A series of dots appears on a computer screen, most of which are moving in random directions. A controlled number of these dots are purposely moving uniformly in the same direction, and the test subject simply has to say whether he believes those dots are moving to the left or right. The longer the subject watches the dots, the more evidence he accumulates and the more sure he becomes of the dots' motion.
Subjects in this test performed exactly as if their brains were subconsciously gathering information before reaching a confidence threshold, which was then reported to the conscious mind as a definite, sure answer. The subjects, however, were never aware of the complex computations going on, instead they simply "realized" suddenly that the dots were moving in one direction or another. The characteristics of the underlying computation fit with Pouget's extensive earlier work that suggested the human brain is wired naturally to perform calculations of this kind.
"We've been developing and strengthening this hypothesis for years—how the brain represents probability distributions," says Pouget. "We knew the results of this kind of test fit perfectly with our ideas, but we had to devise a way to see the neurons in action. We wanted to see if, in fact, humans are really good decision makers after all, just not quite so good at doing it consciously. Kahneman explicitly told his subjects what the chances were, but we let people's unconscious mind work it out. It's weird, but people rarely make optimal decisions when they are told the percentages up front."
Pouget analyzed the data from a test performed in the laboratory of Michael Shadlen, a professor of physiology and biophysics at the University of Washington. Shadlen's team watched the activity of a pair of neurons that normally respond to the sight of things moving to the left or right. For instance, when the test consisted of a few dots moving to the right within the jumble of other random dots, the neuron coding for "rightward movement" would occasionally fire. As the test continued, the neuron would fire more and more frequently until it reached a certain threshold, triggering a flurry of activity in the brain and a response from the subject of "rightward."
Pouget says a probabilistic decision-making system like this has several advantages. The most important is that it allows us to reach a reasonable decision in a reasonable amount of time. If we had to wait until we're 99 percent sure before we make a decision, Pouget says, then we would waste time accumulating data unnecessarily. If we only required a 51 percent certainty, then we might reach a decision before enough data has been collected.
Another main advantage is that when we finally reach a decision, we have a sense of how certain we are of it—say, 60 percent or 90 percent—depending on where the triggering threshold has been set. Pouget is now investigating how the brain sets this threshold for each decision, since it does not appear to have the same threshold for each kind of question it encounters.
Source: University of Rochester

Mismatch Indeed!

While firmly stapling his place in boxing history Filipino phenom Manny “PacMan” Pacquiao, last night, a big nail into a golden casket, undoubtedly ending one hell of a career for the Golden Boy, Oscar De La Hoya. In front of a sold-out crowd of 15,001, what began as a partial De la Hoya crowd inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas watched as a Hall of Fame fighter whose done nothing but great things for the sport get soundly beaten to the point of quitting.
The Olympic Gold medalist and six division former champion entered the bout admittingly towards the tail end of a wonderful career, looking to finish strong by taking on the pound-for-pound best fighter in the sport.
To make this “Dream Match” a reality Pacquiao, who started his professional boxing career at the tender age of 16 fighting at 106 pounds, moved up two weight classes from where he last fought, at lightweight, in order to meet the legendary De La Hoya.
A heavy media and considerable sportsbook favorite, De La Hoya, who won his first title before Pacquiao ever stepped inside the ring, entered the bout with the pressure of being expected to win a fight against the much smaller man.

Promoter Bob Arum is making arrangements to be at Manny Pacquiao's birthday on Dec. 17 in General Santos, Philippines. "Manny's win on Saturday night was one of the most exciting and biggest in Top Rank history," Arum said. "I am thrilled. Manny and Freddie (Roach) convinced me they could win it and they came through. I cannot wait to get to the Phillipines and celebrate."

It was an antisipated Saturday night. Most people back in the Philippines were glued to their TV or probably flocked to a nearby Gym or a restaurant to view the “The Dream Match” between the Pacman and the Golden boy.
I was with my family and my sister with her boyfriend that afternoon in Des Moines to celebrated my birthday a day ahead since the fight would be in the evening. So it would be like a double celebration. My DVD recorder is already standing by to capture the mega fight.
Early this week I already received some email from my buddies on board asking me to get a copy since they can't watch it since they are still at high seases and besides If ever they get a copy back home in the Philippines it would be full of annoying TV ads.
As the first under card started around 8pm Central, I thought the main event would be early because most of the under card ended only in less than 2 rounds. Forget the under cards It was boring and not worth watching. They (Top Rank and Golden Boy Promotion) should have put a much interesting bouts especially that Lopez / Medina thing. Medina is no doubt a weekend paycheck fight so as Lares.
A lot of nervous Pacman fans comments just before this fight, It is so annoying to hear their comment that Manny have no chances against Oscar. Even one local government official in the Philippines would want the fight canceled because they value Manny so much that they don't want him to get hurt.
Yeah right, who got hurt now? ehey!
I even heard one prediction that that fight could have been Manny's last fight because he surely be in trouble against Oscar.

It was a mismatch indeed. But not for Oscar's favor but of Manny...

Well done Manny and advance happy Birthday!

Why XP

Here is the second part regarding Windows Vista. You will see here why XP user should not avail Windows vista instead. Again this is from a magazine I read and want to share here for more information to those who are not so technically-inclined people with regards to computers like myself but willing to experiment new and different things to their personal computer.

10 Reason Not to Deploy Windows Vista
by Alan Sugano

With a weak economy, businesses need to do more with less. When it comes time to consider upgrading a Windows XP environment to Windows Vista, many companies are choosing not to. Ultimately, upgrading has to make business sense, and many companies find the cost to upgrade outweighs any benefits they receive. Here are my top 10 reasons why companies are staying away from Vista.
1.Vista requires new hardware or significant hardware upgrades. To get acceptable performance on Vista, you're probably looking at significant hardware upgrades, if not a new computer. In my work environment, we've found the minimum requirement for a Vista Desktop is 2GB of memory, a dual core processor, 80GB hard disk drive, and a video card with at least 256MB of VRAM. For most users, these specs mean getting a new computer because upgrading an existing system isn't cost effective.
2.The additional cost of additional upgrades. There's a good chance you'll have to upgrade your applications as well. Unless you're running the latest version of your application, you'll probably need to upgrade – or at the very least install a patch – for Vista compatibility. Application upgrades could cost thousands of dollars per desktop, depending on the number and type of applications your company's running. Make sure you check for compatibility and upgrade problems before committing to upgrading your entire company.
3.Compatibility problems with applications. Even with the latest updates, you might still encounter compatibility problems with some applications. You might even be forced to change applications if the vendor doesn't plan to support Vista. VPN clients, accounting applications, faxing applications, and some graphics programs have caused problems in my environment.
4.Training cost. With the upgrade form Windows 2000 to XP, users could pretty much figure things out on their own. With Vista, you might not be so lucky. Many programs and utilities have been moved in Vista, and your users might have a difficult time location them. When I first started using Vista, I wanted to view my installed applications. I launched Control Panel and looked for Add/Remove Programs, but it wasn't there. I eventually found the applet – renamed Programs and Features – but the search added to the frustration of getting up to speed with Vista.
5.Vista requires significant tweaks. Changes to User Account Control (UAC), local user rights, and application settings might be necessary to get your company's applications to run on a Vista computer. Most of these settings can be controlled with Group Policy; however, finding which settings to change can be the real headache.
6.Boot times and the patch installation process. This is one of my pet peeves: Vevn with a fat computer, Vista is slow booting up. Vista SP1 has helped somewhat, but when I”m wainting for Vista to boot, all I can think about is how fast my machine would be if it were running XP. During some patch installations, Vista installs the patch, reboots, runs another process to complete the patch installations, I always seem to get hit with the double-boot patch installation at the beginning of meetings, so everyone has to wait while my machines completes the patch process before I can show my PowerPoint presentation.
7.Laptop performance problems. Properly configured, the current generation of desktop computers generally has acceptable performance running Vista. However, if you have a laptop – especially a sub notebook – you could encounter performance problems. You might need to disable some of the features on Vista, such as Aero, to obtain acceptable performance.
8.Windows XP works well. XP is stable, and it's more compatible with existing applications than Vista. Vista is arguably more secure, but some of the security features, such as UAC, can be so irritation that companies end up disabling them. XP isn't perfect, but it still works acceptably for most users, so many companies are hesitant to purchase an upgrade.
9.Limited payoff in productivity. Most people don't mind going through a learning curve if there's a significant payoff. Vista has some nice features; however, in my organization, we haven't experienced a big productivity payoff after getting up to speed with it. In contrast, there's a significant learning curve with Microsoft Office 2007 because of the changes to the UI. But after getting up to speed with office 2007, I can honestly say that I create documents faster and more easily than before. I haven't experienced any similar benefit with Vista. At the end of the day, upgrading has to make business sense.
10.Windows 7 isn't far away! In may opinion, Microsoft realized it missed the mark with Vista and is now scrambling to get the next release of Windows out. I think many companies are waiting to see the new features in Windows 7,currently scheduled to release in 2010, and might just skip Vista altogether. Vista is looking more and more to me like Windows Me all over again.

Deploy Windows Vista

A lot of us are skeptical about Vista and not to consider it rather we want the hassle-free XP in our OS. So here it is, I've found an article from a magazine that might pave way some Vista doubts perhaps an eye opener to what Vista could do in whatever business you're into. This is a two-part article. The battle between Vista and XP.

10 Reason to Deploy Windows Vista
by Mark Minasi, Windows IT Pro Magazine

At the tender age of a year and a half, Windows Vista remains the Rodney Dangerfield of Microsoft OSs – it don't get no respect. And that's a shame. Its biggest competitor ( no, not Leopard _ Windows XP SP3) is darned good, but a close look will show that Vista is better in many ways. If you're staying with XP because you're satisfied with it , then great , but don't avoid Vista just because your plumber's cousin's stockbroker heard that it was bad. Here are 10 reasons you should consider making the switch.
1. You won't need as many images. If, like most of us, you deploy your desktops with an image-based system such as Symantec Ghost or Microsoft's free ImageX tool, then you know that XP images tend to be hardware-specific: Create “the sales laptop image” on a Toshiba laptop, for instance, and it often won't work well on an HP or Dell laptop. Vista is much more accommodating; you often need only two images for your entire organization : a 32-bit image and a 64-bit image.
2. Finally, a desktop search that works! For nearly 10 years, Windows and Office have included tools that index the files on your computer to make searching for those files possible. Unfortunately, those tools have had a tendency to be clumsy and slow. In contrast, Vista's search index works unobtrusively and makes for lightning-fast searches.
3. A more complete backup tool. Ever tried to rebuild an XP box from scratch, using only a set of files created by XP's built-in backup routines? Ugh. Vista changes all that with its Windows Complete PC Backup and Restore, an image-based backup system that backs up your whole computer to one big file. My experience show that this system works quickly and allows bare-metal restores to quite dissimilar hardware – just make sure that the target hard disk is the same size or larger than the original.
4. Start great conversations. Next time you're out with your techie friends, tell'em that you're switching to Vista – there will be plenty to talk about after that! Seriously, if you are moving to Vista and people ask you why on Earth you'd do that, remind them that just about every Vista complaint – it's slower than the previous version, there aren't any drivers, it's not backward compatible – is a complaint that people leveled at XP when it was new. Look, XP's a great OS, and if you're happy with it, then by all means stay with it – but don't bypass Vista because of second-hand FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, & Doubt).
5. Windows BitLocker Drive Encryption protects your mobile data. Laptops are great for busy travelers... until they're accidentally left in a bar, on a plane , or in a cab, as reportedly happened to hundreds of thousands of systems last year in the United States. In contrast, absentminded folks who exploit BitLocker's encryption system might still lose their laptops, but no one will get their data. BitLocker is available on Vista Ultimate and Enterprise (although, incomprehensibly, not on Vista Business):
6. Get more out of Group Policy. Vista includes about 700 new Group Policy settings that let you control fleets of computers from one central location. Some new options include controlling power management settings, allowing nonadministrative users to lad approved drivers, and restriction which devices users can install on a Vista box.
7. Get a tougher Windows. Service programs wield great power in Windows, making them irresistible targets for malware writers: seize a Windows service, and you've often seized Windows itself. Vista uses a more secure way of building Windows services so that they have less potential to do damage and are isolated in their own little private universes, which makes a compromised service a much less juicy prize.
8. Confuse the bad guys with ASLR. Another Windows toughener is Address Space Layout Randomization (ASLR), a feature that rearranges the relative location of Vista's different components in memory. Past creators of Windows worms such as Code Red, Nimda, SQL Slammer, and Blaster relied on the fact that every copy of XP load each of its components in the same location from computer to computer. Shuffling the deck with ASLR makes it much harder for the bad guys to write a worm that targets every copy of Vista.
9. Centralize events with Event Viewer. XP's event logs are useful for keeping track of your computers, but every computer maintains its own logs. Managing dozens of desktops means either wearing out a lot of shoe leather or buying a third-party event log aggregator tool. Vista's Event Viewer , in contrast, lets you centralize any of group of system's events to a single system.
10. And lots more! Resize existing disk partition with Vista's Disk Manager. Put eight gigs of RAM on your system and see and use! - all of it. Easily tell Vista to send you an email message if a particular event occurs . Eliminate LAN Manager hashes, that persistent 1980s security
hole, once and Intel Turbo Memory for a system that comes out of hibernation in just 12 seconds. Give Vista a close look, and you'll find lots of things to like!

Scam Emails

A sweet-talk from scammers who sends bunch of junk email everyday. It is really annoying to receive such junk in our mailbox each day. You might have read one of these letter from stranger asking you to reply with your Name, Phone number, Bank Account, etc. because you have a cash waiting, not just a cash but millions of dollars or euros even gold bars deposited to some fictitious person. Animation at its best. Here's an example:

Dear Friend,
I am very happy to inform you about my success in getting that fund transferred. Now I want you to contact my secretary and ask him for a cheque worth of USD$900,000,00 which I kept for you as a compensationof your past assistance to me
Note that if you did not send him the complete information,he will not release the cheque to you because he has to be sure that it is you. Note also that I will not be reached by email or phone at thismoment because I am currently in London for investment trip with my share.
Regards,Eze Chinasa

What a jerk! The sender doesn't wish to be contacted because she is in London?! Here's another one.

Dear sir I am Mr JEFFERY M ANTHONY, a personal assistant to Mr Dirk ,who died in a car accident.I have contacted you as the beneficiary to the late Mr Dirk to claim the fund valued at €4.5 million euros and 150Kgs of Gold he deposited before he died.Your immediate/urgent response is needed now and dont hesitate to call me now.Please get in touch with me through the above email or my alternative email :(jefferymanthony@live.fr). My tel+229 976 72 880
Again what a stupid person.”Your immediate response is needed,” but DON'T CALL ME NOW?! And he leaves his number...Yeah great story huh?
A lot of this funny yet annoying stories I'm getting every day from my mailbox. I know that this is far, way far to be true. How I wish I can “unsubscribed”them. If I could but no, they will keep coming.

If you receive an unsolicited e-mail seeking you to receive a large sum of money or be presented as the next of kin of a large fortune from someone you never heard of (especially if that person resides overseas), don't believe it. This is almost certainly a scam where you will be asked to pay some type of fee before you can claim the money or you will be presented with a phony check and asked to return a share. Don't be fooled by official looking documents as scammers make a living forging these things. Also many scammers work in rings and have partners who may pose as lawyers, government officials, bank officials etc. Be aware!

Trick or Treat

Halloween is just around the corner. Kids and teens alike look forward this day for a trick or treat. So by now kids are busy looking for custome to wear. As parents, We too are excited to see our baby to enjoy her first trick or treat. Well, The Dark Knight movie kick the screen with a bang. Is my baby looks good on this costume? hmmm... guess not.

ahh.. Cow! Holy Cow! -- Melamine scare us much these days so I say, we may just pass on this one. Looks cute on her though. Or maybe one of these devil-looking guys (not the Batman). Jack-o-latern looks good, a bit bulky to carry her though. Again we just have to pass on this items.

Oh what this?! - Very refreshing for cars. Isn't this a famous car freshner eh?! She'd be wrapped tight and might be grumpy with this. I know there are still better for my baby.

Until I saw this one... The Pink Bunny. I think this will be perfect for my li'l one.

We've already prepared chocolates and candies for the kids that might come and visit us. If they don't then I have a whole lotta bags of Kit-kats and Snickers bar for snacks.

Fall and Walnuts

In our backyard, falling walnuts from its tree were scattering all around. I have a neighbor who likes to gather every Fall just before they leave for Winter. She painstakenly go through the process of peeling off the skin, drying it and breaking the shell just to get the meat, no bigger than a penny. Her nemesis are these smart crawling squirrels who will just wait for her harvest; sneaking a few dozen nuts.

Wherever she puts it outside, the squirrels follows her and wait when she'll get her eyes off her harvest.

Last year during my first Fall after i moved from my home country - The Philippines. I didn't know what a walnut looks like from the tree. Well of course, I've seen and ate this fruit but not while it is still fresh. Walnuts are good for salads, pies, cakes even in chocolates have this, too.

So my neighbor asked me to help her showing me the process how to do it. I have no idea how difficult to get a meat out of this of fruit. The shell after being dried for days gets hard to crack. Men, you need a hammer to pound it! What you'll get is a tiny broken pieces of it. No wonder this is expensive in our local grocery store.

Fall season is the time where creatures like the squirrels go and gather their food to prepare for winter. These tree-dwelling rodents with a bushy tail have their own weather channels so they know when to get some stuff like the expensive walnuts.